Pattern ahead is very tricky!

The upcoming pattern heading into late November and going into December looks like a pretty tricky pattern.

Here's why:

1. Bering Sea has a huge ridge

This correlates with ridge and some warmth in the United States about late November and early December. There is a counter this though.

2. Strongly Negative NAO and AO

This is what a negative NAO and AO bring in terms of analogs...

3. Descending QBO and East Based La Nina Forcing

These factors also lead to a cold November and December in the Central and Eastern United States.

Here is my December Outlook

Verdict: There is a chance for warm and cold weather as we head into the winter month of December and I could see both as a possibilty. I guess we will have to see which factor can win out and give us the cold or the warmth.

Stay tuned!

Matthew Labenz