A Look Ahead to see what is in store for November

Hello everyone and welcome to a long range update! Today we are going to look at what is in store for November temperature and snow wise.

First let's look at the potential pattern drivers for this November.

First thing I want to talk about is the MJO. This is a huge pattern driver for us because when it goes through phases it creates warm or cold spells. Right now the MJO is in Phase 7 and you can see how cold it's going to be this weekend and next week. Now as we head into Phase 8 there is some warm risks at the start of November. This should only last a couple of days for many but lingering warmth is not out of the question.

Here is the ridge and warmth I was talking about. This should only last through about the 6th or 7th of November. Now after Phase 8 we are heading into Phase 1 which is a cold phase for the Central and Western United States as you can see here.

Another key factor in our November pattern is the EPO. If this is negative then cold is likely and if positive then warmth is likely. This is where it is right now...

Again this correlates with cold as you can see on my analog years.

Two more big factors are the AO and NAO. This is what helps with high latitude blocking. if they are both negative then that supports cold in the Central United States.

Both are positive during the first 7 days of November which supports the warm risk but they do go negative soon after that. Here is what the temperatures look like when they are negative.

One last factor that supports this cold is the Bering Sea. if there is troughs and storm systems there then there will be here also. Here is what the Bering Sea looks like from now until Halloween.

This supports cold starting November 8th and throughout the month so we will have to watch Thanksgiving week for a storm system which could be a winter storm.

ECMWF model for November 8th...

The Central United States looks to be more cold than East Coast but there is still cold risks for you guys up there. I do see winter storm potential for the Central United States which is exciting!

Here is the JMA Model 850 MB temp anomaly through almost most of November...

Conclusion: There is warm risks to start out the month but I do think the cold settles in and we will see more winter storm potential especially in the Central United States. There is still warmth in the Northeast that might have to be dealt with.

Official November Temperature Outlook will be out soon and I guess you guys will have to wait and see who has the cold and who doesn't.

Have a great evening!

Forecaster Matthew Labenz