Hurricane Irma- East coast or Out to sea?

Current Satellite loop of Major Hurricane Irma

The GFS and Euro are split on where Irma goes after passing through the Bahamas. GFS( which has been very consistent in the long term) says Irma will make a sandy like curve and landfall somewhere in the Southeast United States, 12z GFS shown below

The GFS ensembles have been very consistent on an East coast landfall as well, 12z GEFS shown below

Only one member in that run goes OTS, so 20/21 make landfall in the united states and as you can see many options still on the table, including OTS and Gulf of mexico so anyone who lives near the Atlantic needs to keep a very close eye on this.

As for the short term, Irma is taking a SW dip currently and is matching both our forecast and the official NHC forecast, satellite shown below.

Irma is forecast to steadily intensify into a cat 4 by tomorrow and possibly a cat 5 when it nears the Bahamas. Intensity models shown below: (ignore the TCLP model)

And just as I am typing this the ECMWF ensembles are rolling in and many of them are a landfall in the United States with a considerable amount going into the gulf. Shown below:

It all depends on the positioning of the trough and ridge which we will begin to hone in on once Irma is closer to the United States. For now, here are the current threat levels for Hurricane #Irma

Thats all for now, will keep you guys updated - Owen